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Please note: This is an Historical Page. It documents the collaborative effort done here and in the forum in pursuit of the CHR rewards formula.

Since the formulas has been already found, don't edit this page unless you notice some error or a change in behavior of the CHR.

Introduction Edit

A very long thread has spawned in the forum with reports from all kind of adventurers of their encounters with the Rider. As of 5th of September 2008, it has 13 pages, 373 replies and 3834 views. To simplify the arduous task of looking up the data, I'm going to traverse all the thread compiling data, and will update this page with the results, and page I'm on. By the way, my objective is to show that the rewards are really random, but I won't be surprised if the numbers contradict me in the end ~Scarbrow


Now parsing page number: 16 (and this will be the last one I follow). Now the thread has 450 replies and 4511 views. ~Scarbrow


Please note there is some discrepancy on MR and To-hit numbers from the first pages to last ones, so either there have been some errors on the reporting or some tweaking in the scenario since it first came out. That's why I'm compiling data from first to last in the pages, and from Top to bottom in the table. If there are inconsistencies among first and last values, maybe we should blame the same reasons that for MR changes.


Possibly the best answer (by the GM himself) is here: "Hi, the difficulty level of the rider depends upon which face he is showing. The face of the "young man" is the least difficult, while the "black void" is the most difficult. There is a chance at the end for the Experienced reward to be for all powers and skills, general, or for a single skill/power. There will be a chance for other bonuses/prizes as well". The quote is from 6 Feb 2008. The "chance for other bonuses" is widely thought as a reference to Moonpath.

Data gathering Edit

The values shown on the table below were gathered from this thread on the forum, pages 1 to 15.


More data was added from a Word document that Young Ned compiled, and from 21 consecutive days of visiting the Rider with my (Scarbrow's) 4 characters. The last data is on the Excel document, but not in the table, and only parts of it in the forum.


You can check for yourself the data in the spreadsheet that was used to compile and calculate values.


The final values for probabilities that are pubished on the main CHR page come from an interpolation of the results from the three sets of data (Forum, Scarbrow's and Young Ned's).

Correlations and bounds found so far Edit

  • Maximum known reward is 384 XP to all skills and powers.
  • Minimum known reward is 0 (a rare but not unique case, even at 17), otherwise it's 4. A zero reward is almost certainly a glitch, as there is no other case where a scaled scenario gives you no experience.
  • Distribution of faces shows roughly the same probability of appearance of each of the faces: about 20%, with +or- 5% variation. The percentages tends more strictly to 20% as more data is added.
  • The distribution for type of reward is: 60% of the times is a General EXP, 35% is a specific EXP (selected randomly from the ones the character have), and 5% of the time is for All Skills and Powers. This data is gathered from results 121 to 258, and keeps absolutely steady when adding the first 42 results of page 15 of the forum thread (mine), so we have a confirmed value here. And since the values are the same no matter the type of face (which is equiprobable) we can safely assume that the type of face is not linked to the type of reward whatsoever.
  • By quantity of XP recieved, rewards are generally higher as the sum of the three rolls gets higher. The reward gets drawn from an array of possible results, the "normal" and the two values inmediately above and below.

Theories proposed and discardedEdit

  • The rewards depend on the order of the rolls, or whether the CHR threw knives at you: False. No tendency has been found that could support these speculations. The only valid correlations are among the total number rolled and the rewards. Also, no direct correlation has been found to whether you challenge the CHR (same rewards for same rolls). It only affects it indirectly by way of the rerolls.
  • The range of rewards is also face-dependent: False. Sometimes the weaker faces get higher rewards, and other times the contrary. No statistical correlation at all.
  • The number on his hand (number of consecutive visits) affects the outcome. False. To date, there is no data indicating this. Moreover, the number of days is not intrinsic to the CHR, and all the variables discovered so far are intrinsic to the face shown or random, like the choosing of the face or the type of reward. Besides, it would give a considerable advantage to players who play the scenario daily. (The only occurrence of the number affecting anything is at number 7, when he gives you the directions to Moonpath). Until there is some strong data indicating a correlation, I think this speculation can be safely discarded.

Table of reports Edit

Please note that all values shown here from Page 10 onwards are also on the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet linked from the main page of the CHR.

SeqFaceKnivesRoll1Roll2Roll3TotalEXP GivenTo what
1  45514128General
2  56617236General
3     1036 
4  6251364Gating
5  65617128General
6  621936 
7  66113128General
8  115716Arcana
9  44614128General
10  5231064General
11  66214128 
12  55616256General
13  56617256All skills and powers
14  4551464All skills and powers
15  62614128Shadow Magic
16  65516256General
17  63615128General
18  45615128Gating
19  62513128Gating
20  3541232All skills and powers
21  56415128General
22Young man 55616256General
23Dead man 6451564General
24Ancient man 5461564General
25Ancient man 65516256General
26Ancient Man 423932General
27Dead man 65617256General
28Dead man    16128General
29Black Void 55414128General
30Black Void 64616128General
31Ancient Man 3651464General
32Dead Man 55616256General
33Young man 66416128Fortification
34Ancient 5541464General
35Older man 3551464Arcana
  About here (Page 4) there was an announcement of changes, but I couldn't find the Game Updates 2008 Part I
36Ancient man 66618256General
37Young man 66315128General
38Dead man 45615128General
39Young man 66517256General
40Black Void 66618256General
41Older man 342964General
42Dead man 64515128General
43Ancient man 6231132Necromancy
44  66618256General
45Black Void 56617256Specific skill
46Older man 3541232Seamanship
47Older man 5341264Fortification
48Ancient man 66618256All skills and powers
49Black Void 66618384All skills and powers
50Black Void    17256general
51     964All skills and powers
52  225932General
53Young man 54615128General
54Ancient Man 66618256Destruction
55Black Void 3441164Seamanship
56Dead man 6631564General
 Page 5       
57Ancient man 65617128General
  Here these changes are announced: The counter for number of visits and the throwing of knives. However, discrepancies still exist between old and new MR values.
58Older manYes43615128Specific skill
59Older man 45615128General
60Older manYes4651564Polearms
61Black void 66618384Necromancy
62Black void 65617128General
63Young man 2351032General
64Young manYes64616128Gating
65Ancient manyes64515128General
66Ancient man 4561564general
67Ancient man 5531364All skills and powers
68Dead manYes5461564General
69 yes45615128All skills and powers
70Dead man 3621132General
71Ancient man 6361564General
72Ancient man 65516256All skills and powers
73Black Void 65617256General
74Older man 3251064Weaponry: Bashing
 Page 6       
75  4431132General
76  5331164Woodsmanship
77  4151064General
78Black Void 66618256General
79Older man 46616256Weaponry: Hacking
80Older man 6421264General
81Black Void 66517128All skills and powers
82  65415128General
83Black Void 56415128All skills and powers
84Ancient man 3431064General
85Young man 3361232All skills and powers
86Dead man 3661564Illusion
87Black void 66618256general
88Dead man 66618256Weaponry
89Dead manYes66618384All skills and powers
90Ancient man 66618256General
91Dead man 426120 
92Ancient man 6541564General
93Ancient manYes3611032All skills and powers
94Young man 3651464Waponry: staves
95Old man 54413128General
96Older man 26614128Diplomacy
97  312632General
 Page 7       
98Young man 56617128General
  Here is the first sign of the changes to the MR values (they start being consistent with now, 5th Sep 2008)
99Ancient man 65617256Weaponry
100Young manYes66618384General
 Page 8       
101Black Void 22158General
102  66618384Arcana
103Black Void 66618384Unarmed Combat
104  11138All skills and powers
105Black Void 243932General
106  53614128All skills and powers
107  66517128All skills and powers
108Ancient man 65617256All skills and powers
109  66618256Lore
 Page 9       
110  4521132General
111  611832Diplomacy
112  64414128All skills and powers
113  3521032Weaponry: Troll-Bont
114  11134Fortification
115  65517128Conjuration
116  141616Weaponry: Slashing
117  2661432Archery
118Ancient or Dead man 66618384General
119  66618384General
120Young or Older man 66618256General
  Here Young Ned had already realised there has been an MR change, start new collecting
 Page 10       
121Young manYes5151164Illusion
122Older manNo4431164Necromancy
123Dead manx5461564General
124Older manYes64616256General
125Young manNo45615128General
126Black voidNo66416128General
127Older manNo66416128General
128Young manNo5361464General
129Young manYes61613128All skills and powers
130Dead manx134816Shadow Magic
131Ancient manNo65617128General
132Black VoidYes66416256Weaponry: Lances
133Young manNo4351264Archery
134Young manYes26614128General
135Ancient manNo6361564General
136Dead manYes4461464General
137Dead manYes64414128General
138Ancient manNo66416256Weaponry: Hacking
139Young manYes5521264All skills and powers
140Black voidx2661464General
141Young manYes66618384general
142Black voidNo56516128Weaponry: Lances
143Ancient ManNo64616256General
144Dead manYes56516128Unarmed Combat
145Dead manYes6531464General
146Dead manNo56617128General
 Page 11       
147Older manNo64515128Archery
148Older manNo4241064General
149Older manNo52613128General
150Ancient manNo66416128General
151Ancient manNo66618384General

152

Young manYes6251364General
153Ancient manNo65516256Weaponry: Staves
154

Ancient man

Yes3361264General
155Ancient manYes56516128Lore
156Ancient manYes6441464General
157Ancient manNo54413128Unarmed Combat
158Older manNo4551464General
159Dead manNo46616256General
160Ancient manNo4651564General
161Young manNo64515128General
162Older manYes6541564Diplomacy
163Young manYes5531364General
164Black VoidNo56617128General
165Dead manNo66517128General
 Page 12       
166Black VoidNo4461464General
167Dead manyes5431232General
168Black VoidYes5431232General
169Black voidYes66517256Diplomacy
170Dead ManNo55616128Arcana
171Dead manNo55616128Weaponry: Troll-bont
172Black VoidNo4651564General
173Young manNo65516128Thievery
174Black voidyes65516256All skills and powers
175older manNo65516128Horsemanship
176older manNo25613128General
177Dead manNo56617256All skills and powers
178Ancient manNo6611364General
179Older manNo162964general
180Young manNo4241032General
181Older manNo5441364Arcana
182Black VoidYes55515128Weaponry: Slashing
183Young manYes52613128Horsemanship
 184Older manNo4521132General
 185Young manNo2361132General
 186Older manNo5241164General
 187Young manYes2451132General
 188Dead ManNo63514128General
 Page 13       
 189Young manNo6131032General
 190Black VoidYes43613128All skills and powers
 191Ancient manNo35614128Woodsmanship
 192Dead manNo6331264Unarmed Combat
 193Young manNo153964All skills and powers
 194Dead manNo66517128

Elementalism

 195Black VoidNo54615128General
 196Black VoidNo65617128General
 197Ancient manNo46414128General
 198Ancient manNo35513128Telekinesis
  Here we started tracking the launching of knives and its difficulty
 199Ancient manNo55616128General
 200Young manNo63615128General
 201Ancient manNo4341132General
 202Black VoidYes4561564General
 203Dead manNo55616128Unarmed Combat
 204Young manYes46616128General
 205Dead manYes65617256General
 206Older manYes3531132Thievery
 207Young manNo54615128General
 208Dead manx315932general
 209Ancient manx153964Telekinesis
 210Dead Manx5531364General
 Page 14       
211Older manx6421264General
212Black Voidx6131064General
213Ancient manx6511264General
214Older manx2351064General
215Ancient manx34613128Thievery
216Dead manx261932Unarmed Combat
217Older manx1361032Weaponry: Hacking
218Black voidx321616General
219Older manx216932All skills and powers
220Black voidx341832General
221Young manx11134General
222Older manNo5251264Unarmed combat
223Ancient manNo5461564Diplomacy
224Dead manNo56617256General
225Ancient manx261964General
226Black voidx35513128General
227Black voidx261964General
228Black voidYes66618384Horsemanship
229Older manNo46313128General
230Older manNo423964General
231Young manNo4251132Seamanship
232Black voidNo5551564General
233Older manx231616General
234Ancient manx151716Horsemanship
235Ancient manx55515128General
236Black voidx6131032General
237Older manYes53513128All skills and powers
238Dead manNo63615128Gating
239Older manx4331064Necromancy
240Older manNo5511164General
241Young manNo242816General
242Young manYes3531132All skills and powers
243Ancient manNo66618256Weaponry: Troll-bont
244Young manx122516Unarmed Combat
245Young manx2451164Necromancy
246Older manx431832Arcana
247Dead manYes6431364Lore
248Ancient manYes56415128Weaponry
249Young manNo64515128General
250Young manNo4161132General
251Young manx45514128General
252Ancient manx114632Woodsmanship
253Young manx225964General
254Ancient manYes64414128Weaponry: lances
255Black voidx3351164Telekinesis
256Ancient manNo55515128Arcana
257Black voidYes4361364General
258Dead manYes64616128General
 Page 15       
  This post from Scarbrow doesn't get repeated here, it's on the Excel file
259Black voidNo46616256Weaponry: Troll-bont
260Older manx3531132Weaponry: Bashing
261Ancient manx1551132General
262Older manx313732Unarmed Combat
263Black voidx621932Weaponry: Staves
264Dead manYes65517128Archery
265Dead manx122516General
266Dead manx114632General
267Older manx4621264General
268Older manYes412732Weaponry: Slashing
269Ancient manx341832Necromancy
270Older manx2261064General
271Older manx214716General
272Black voidx6411164General
273Young manYes2541132Weaponry: Lances
274Older manNo5441564General
275Black voidYes66618256General
276Young manYes5461564Weaponry: Slashing
277Black voidNo36615128General
278Black voidx6251364Unarmed Combat
279Young manx2551264General
280Black voidx423932General
281Ancient manNo6541564General
282Dead manYes6541564General
283Black voidx5141064General
284Ancient manx512832Horsemanship
285Dead manx431816Weaponry: bashing
286Dead manNo56516128Telekinesis
287Young manx412716Destruction
288Dead manx211416Woodsmanship
289Older manx45615128General
 Page 16       

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